Cancelled: Understanding Estimating Uncertainty


April 14, 2020
5:30 PM - 7:30 PM
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Brother John's BBQ
1801 N Stone Ave
Tucson, AZ 85705
Venue website

Event Cancelled Due to COVID-19 Threat

Understanding Estimating Uncertainty

None of us want to admit it, but our estimates are often flawed. Optimism bias or estimating errors are common causes, but neither of these account for the size or frequency of cost overruns or schedule delays. There is something else at work here.
The uncertainty within our single-point estimates is the single biggest risk carried forward by project teams, especially in the earlier phase estimates. While uncertainty cannot be eliminated, the level of uncertainty can be identified and managed by simple adjustments to your estimating methods. These adjustments align the cost and schedule estimates with the expectations of project stakeholders before moving into the realm of Monte Carlo analysis.
The speakers will present lessons learned in implementing a robust risk analysis process for a global medical device manufacturer’s CapEx project. The speakers will share how they incorporated AACE’s Estimating Classification System with the Cone of Uncertainty to better understand the influence of uncertainty by evaluating the estimator’s level of confidence in the overall project definition.

Rick Belanger, PMP

Rick Belanger's expertise provides clients with a quantitative risk assessment of the uncertainty and various risk events that can impact a project. The results of the quantitative risk assessment aid the project team in formulating an effective risk management plan that can map out the most suitable path to completion for the project.

PDU VALUE: 1 (Technical) 


5:30 PM - Doors Open and Registration
6:00 PM - Dinner/Networking
6:30 PM - Presentation Starts
7:30 PM - Presentation End


$20.00 Board Member
$15.00 Earlybird rate before April 12

$25.00 Chapter Member
$20.00 Earlybird rate before April 12

$30.00 Non-Chapter Member
$25.00 Earlybird rate before April 12

$25.00 Partner Organization (e.g. SWE)
$20.00 Earlybird rate before April 12